Crypto Market Analysis: What’s Happened and What’s to Come？

In the past week, many friends have called me to ask about the market conditions. I feel it’s necessary to publicly share my thoughts and disclose my views on the current market situation.
What Exactly Has Changed?
The Future Course
Those who have followed me for a long time know that I’m a long - term investor. So, since 2019, I’ve had an annual strategy that is updated every year. The one for 2024 - 2025 is roughly as follows, for communication and discussion with everyone.
1. DeepSeek Punctured the Bubble
When DeepSeek emerged, regardless of whether it actually used 5 - million story, you should take it as true.
By the end of 2024 in our crypto industry, apart from meme coins, although I’m reluctant to admit it, objectively, there was only one last narrative left: AIAgent, which could be said to be the hope of the whole community.
However, no one expected that AIAgent was mercilessly crushed by DeepSeek in the real AI track next door.
The DS team is full of real IQ - 200 geniuses, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking Universities, and Olympiad medalists are everywhere.
In contrast, in our industry, what we 追捧 are second - tier programmers who are unemployed at home, AI engineers who have been laid off by large companies or are secretly doing side jobs. So sometimes, we are forced to be "IQ - 50".
So...
On January 27th, I reluctantly took profits on all my AI token positions. I didn’t sell at the highest point and sold after a significant retracement. It’s not true to say I wasn’t heartbroken.
But the colder truth is that this has made our entire AIAgent track look like a joke, and this is probably true.
The reason why "narrative" comes before "event" is that the "event" hasn’t materialized yet and can only rely on "narrative". Once the story can no longer be told, the decline of the track is truly irreversible.
2. The President and His Mob
I don’t know how everyone felt during the Spring Festival. Anyway, my personal experience was that many relatives and friends were asking how to register on Binance or OKX. There’s no other reason; they wanted to buy Trump coins.
The last time they were this crazy was during the National Day when they wanted to open accounts and rush into the A - share market.
If I remember correctly, those brave souls who entered the A - share market on October 8th are still stuck at that peak.
After taking profits on AI, to be honest, the more I thought about it, the more 后怕 I became. Then I saw this post.
Roughly speaking: The president seems to have suffered heavy losses, but there are two possible reasons:
He doesn’t make money in the way you can see.
He’s a fool.
Anyway, I know the answer can’t be 2.
Yes! Meme coins are now what the president is playing with, and he can also make money through channels unknown to us.
Frankly speaking, do the meme coins we play with deserve to be at the same table as Trump?
A Thai hippo, an American squirrel, a longevity drug that extends the lifespan of flies. Can they really sit at the same table as Trump, who 稳居 the Oval Office?
During the Spring Festival, adults sit at one table, and children sit at another.
Adults drink famous wines, and children can only drink Sprite.
So, on that day, I also basically sold all the meme coins in my hand. My meme coin positions once had huge floating profits, but because I actively lowered my "IQ" to 50, I didn’t complete a great retreat but kept joining the "great revolution". It felt like a dream.
3. A Top Signal: A High - School Student Earned Tens of Millions
I believe that all those who play meme coins, and even those who don’t, have heard of this recent legendary story.
A high - school student sat around for a month, suddenly bet on Jelly, and made tens of millions with an ultra - low cost.
Of course, as it was passed on, it became more and more 离谱，and there were more and more rumors. I’m not sure if this is 100% true, but I know the "smell" is right.
Looking back at 1 - 3 days before the 69K all - time high in 2021, I was filled with emotion:

Interns could easily outperform fund bosses in terms of returns.
Grassroots community contributors of ENS received tens of millions in airdrops.
Then
It's just like
Now
I liked a post where a TIME editor (or maybe a hacker) could immediately reap countless SOLs with a fake tweet.
I ask you, what does this mean?
It's not that making money is bad - experts can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market.
But if the subject becomes ordinary people:
An intern makes a fortune, an ENS contributor makes a fortune, a high - school student makes a fortune, an editor makes a fortune.
It means: [At this moment, everyone is very generous].
Friends who often play cards know that only when the floating profit is extremely high will they become generous.
This represents that the greed index has reached a real peak.
This is a super top signal.
So, on the 30th, I liquidated almost all my altcoins, only retaining BTC and a small part of mainstream coins such as ETH, SOL, DOGE, and exchange coins.
Although there are still losses, there are still some meager fruits of victory left.
I admire the high - school student's wonderful operation, and I also respect the iron - clad laws of this alternative investment market.
4. Questions about Binance and Binance's Response
Ah, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.
As a former CEX practitioner, I've seen this set of advisor - listing - selling drama too many times. From the initial anger to gradually becoming numb, I'm already used to it.
However, in the past, this was done secretly, and it was regarded as "petty corruption is the lubricant of development";
It was like "where the water is too clear, there are no fish". A bit of turbidity under the water surface was part of the game rules.
After all, we don't live in a utopia or a vacuum.
But the most taboo thing about this is to bring it out in the open.
I have no intention of criticizing Binance or its leader, because this exists in almost every CEX.
If this were in the traditional world, to put it exaggeratedly, it would be a huge scandal that could make hundreds of people lose their jobs and dozens of people end up in jail.
Perhaps the leader of Binance would have been better off not responding, learning from celebrities to do a cold - treatment and giving retail investors a glimmer of hope.
However, our industry is mostly full of skeptics. A huge scandal is a heavy blow, hitting the hearts of every token holder.
It has shattered the beliefs of many people.
Our industry really needs "gods" because it is maintained by consensus.
But when people find that the "public servants" under the "gods" also want to make some quick money, the belief suddenly collapses, and it is quickly projected onto the related "god" - all the altcoins on Binance are now facing huge suspicion from retail investors. Since AI and HOOK are like this, can other coins really be better?
5. The Future Scenario
If we look at it by "cutting the boat to find the sword" (blindly following the old ways), this decline is very similar to the "5.19" incident. I suggest everyone review the market trend after "5.19" by themselves.
If according to the "5.19" scenario, what follows is a repeated two - month - long shock, until even the most loyal people are washed out of the market, and then a new all - time high of Bitcoin arrives.
Of course, some people suspect that this is the "12.4" scenario, also known as the start of a bear market.
Personally, I hope this is the "5.19" scenario.
After all, the matter of Bitcoin becoming a US national strategic reserve is becoming clearer. Never underestimate the huge influence of this, really.
Even if Bitcoin reaches 88,000, I'm still willing to add some more positions.
6. My Position Distribution
My current positions:
40% BTC
20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT)
40% stable - coin wealth management
Bitcoin is my eternal belief. I think I will never sell BTC again, nor will I do short - term trading.
Reasons for retaining ETH:
To be honest, my belief in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.
I don't know how many of you invest in US stocks. Many people regret not following the trades of "Nancy Pelosi, the stock - goddess on Capitol Hill".
Once Pelosi's heyday was as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, which was only the third - ranked position in the US political arena.
And now Trump is the legitimate president. This "crypto - friendly president" is holding a large position in ETH (although it has now been deposited in the untraceable Coinbase custody), and this is of great significance.
Secondly, ETH has fallen to its current position. I think it has reached the extreme of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), and there may be a reversal. I can't buy when no one cares, but at least don't sell when no one cares.
Reasons for retaining SOL:
There is a small probability of an ETF;
However, the cooling of the AI narrative and the short - term slump of meme coins are two small clouds.
Reasons for retaining DOGE:
Grayscale has launched a Dogecoin Trust, and Doge also has a small probability of an ETF.
In addition, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department;
Riding the same "boat" as the world's richest man and the "director of the US Development and Reform Commission", I think I can sleep soundly.
Reasons for retaining exchange tokens:
Let me be frank. Exchanges have no possibility of 登上更大的舞台.
Coinbase won't list BNB, and Binance won't list MNT.
But exchanges are the only institutions in our industry that can make money and give back to users;
If a bear market really comes, exchange tokens are relatively more resilient, and occasionally an IEO can also bring some returns. We can only rely on this to survive the bear market.
7. A Harsh View: The Good Days of the "Old - Timers" Are Over
Apart from the above, I probably won't hold any large positions in altcoins in the short term - the reason is simple, inflation is too fast.
The speed at which new users and new funds enter the market can't keep up with the speed at which these "coin - issuing maniacs" print coins.
A few days ago, there was a statistic that the most powerful account on pumpfun issued 17,000 coins in 3 months.
Not 170, not 1700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total number of tokens issued in the entire bull market of 2017.
Why has the investment strategy of the "old - timers" failed?
There are too many choices.
There are too many perspectives!
There are even N CAs from the same perspective.
Where is there room for the altcoins favored by the "old - timers"?
The strategy the "old - timers" like most: Buy a mid - cap altcoin at a market capitalization of 200 million.
Hold it for 2 - 3 months and bet that it will outperform Bitcoin.
However, now it may not even be able to outperform ETH.
And the strategy Mr. P likes most: Buy a project with a $10,000 valuation in the internal market.
Run away 30 minutes later.
A real man never looks back at the explosion.
Obviously, in today's era of high token inflation, Mr. P is far better than the "old - timers".
I'm not calling on everyone to become "Mr. P's followers", just hoping that everyone at least doesn't be like the "old - timers".
8. The Best Position: 50% Bitcoin + 50% Stable - Coin Wealth Management
I sincerely suggest that everyone hold a certain amount of stable coins (USDT) to get through the next period.
You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell at a super - big top.
The top comes once every four years. You have to find one day to sell within more than a thousand days. The probability of 1/1000, few people can do it. Those who can are all super lucky.
At this stage, a half - position is the best choice.
Invest 50% of your principal in wealth management. We're not talking about rushing into mining or doing arbitrage.
Let's just do the simplest Ethena USDE. Now Pendle can offer an 18% interest rate.
If you're too lazy to deal with Pendle, just deposit it in AAVE or the mainstream CEX wealth management, and you can still get 10%.

The other 50% is mainly in Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.
There's both interest cash flow,
And dreams and beliefs.
You'll definitely be comfortable.
Of course, you can allocate another 5% to the altcoins you truly believe in, whether it's ETH, SOL, DOGE, or any other coin you have faith in.
Allocate another 5% of the funds to play PVP occasionally. If you win, have a great time; if you lose, consider it as consumption and keep your skills sharp. Isn't that wonderful?
Finally, form this Taiji - diagram - like distribution.
9. Finally
I'm quite satisfied with my current positions. After all, this is my 8th year in the crypto industry. After such a long time of precipitation, I always have some experience.
The only thing I regret a bit is that I was playing in Osaka during the Spring Festival and was lazy. I didn't sort out these thoughts and post them in time.
The same strategy, if said a few days ago, might have helped many people, but if said a few days later, it becomes a post - event review.
However, it's never too late to mend the fold.
I hope every one of you can achieve great results in the crypto market.
Of course, if you can't achieve great results, then retaining some small results and earning more spiritual and social wealth is also worth the journey.