Four Reasons Why the Bitcoin Bull Market Isn’t Over

Amid the significant weekly - candlestick plunge, offering optimism about Bitcoin is a risky move.
Although 99% of my content over the past decade has emphasized investing in Bitcoin, there are those who cherry - pick the remaining 1% and, with the use of leverage, end up ruining themselves. Then, in the comment section, they claim that they haven’t made a fortune because they listened to me.
So, I want to stress here that I’m only referring to Bitcoin, just Bitcoin, and specifically the Bitcoin stored in one’s own cold wallet in a scientific, reasonable, and secure manner. This does not include Bitcoin on any trading platform, Bitcoin contract positions, any Bitcoin - related stocks, or any Bitcoin - related ETFs. There are no other altcoins, no Sol, no Eth, no Xrp, and no Ada. I don’t touch these and can’t offer any advice on them. Is that clear enough?
Moreover, my encouragement is for true Hodlers. These people don’t really need my support in the first place. I’m just offering a word of encouragement during tough times, like a hug of love. It’s by no means an investment advice. For those who are skilled enough to make money in market swings or even in a bear market, this encouragement isn’t for you. Please leave me be.
The last time I wrote an article about Bitcoin was when its price dropped from over $60,000 to around $18,888. Some people may still remember what I wrote.
First, let me share my subjective feelings. Although rumors have it that several legendary big - shots and trading experts have cleared their Bitcoin positions, that has nothing to do with me. I firmly believe that this bull market hasn’t ended. Here are the reasons, which might not seem like reasons at first:
Lack of Mania: If this is considered a bull market, it’s an incredibly rational and conservative one. Based on today’s Bitcoin price, although its annualized return over the past two years has reached an astonishing 94%, according to Grok’s analysis (as shown in the figure below), dozens of stocks have also achieved such growth. The return on this high - risk investment of Bitcoin is only equivalent to that of a relatively good US stock. As for other assets, how can you even call it a "bull market"? For the first time, Bitcoin has behaved as docile as a US stock. I won’t talk about how high it can go for now, but at least its downward potential is limited. If you want a mild dose of optimism, not having wild drops can also be a plus.
Despite Wall Street’s involvement and the launch of ETFs, the full impact of the monetary easing cycle hasn’t shown yet. Bitcoin has at most had a lackluster bull market so far. And monetary easing will surely be the main theme of the fiscal policies of various governments in the next step. Enduring the dry period and waiting for the coming of a booming bull market is what Hodlers deserve.

One must correctly understand the meaning of the Trump administration's cryptocurrency "reserve." If you don't understand these two words deeply, you simply don't understand them at all. It's said that the US - reserved gold hasn't been moved for decades. If a significant amount of Bitcoin is locked up and not traded, given the current quantity of tradable Bitcoin, this is a big deal. Just this alone is enough to make the recent price fluctuations a minor blip in the future flat line. Once the US government starts its Bitcoin reserve, other countries aren't stupid. It's almost inevitable that they will gradually follow suit. Regarding the reserve policy, it's either "yes" or "no"; there's no concept of big or small. Once it starts, it will be an arms race of reserves, and it will definitely be a long - term competition with no end in sight. As an asset that the US government needs to legislate for reserve, Bitcoin currently has a market value equivalent to that of just one US stock. If its market value is likely to remain at this level in the future, no government of any country will have a need for reserve. The only purpose of reserve is to avoid losing the right to speak during the significant upward movement of this asset. This is a reserve of power. You can say that Trump is muddle - headed and a jerk, but it's a bit irresponsible to believe that the actions of the world's most powerful country are just a joke by an amateurish team.
Finally, over the years, I've collected various bull - market indicators with the goal of analyzing market cycles. I won't claim that there's absolutely no element of being inflexible in them, but I've tried my best to actively discard the parts related to such inflexibility. Even so, this lackluster bull market has only reached 30% of the reasonable range indicated by the comprehensive indicators. At this price, I don't know if I'm the only one who thinks it's not worth selling. Even if one has to sell, it feels like selling at a bargain. I'm not confident that I can buy it back at a lower price, so I can only Hodl. At the current price, it can rise or fall as it pleases.
I've been a professional "elevator operator" (referring to observing market ups and downs) in the Bitcoin field for a decade. I'm here with you, ready to serve, without complaint or regret.
Once again, I remind you that none of the above content is investment advice. If you operate based on this and lose money, you're responsible for your own losses. If you make a profit, feel free to send me $50 as a token of gratitude :)
I don't promise anyone financial freedom. Financial freedom is always one's own business. Relying on the views of others for investment will rarely lead to good outcomes.