Joint AMA held by CryptoLabs and CoinW Exchange
Topic: Will Ethereum Have an Independent Bull Run?
Time: May 30th, 20:30 (UTC+8)
Question 1: The approval of the Ether ETF seems more dramatic. Will Ethereum follow Bitcoin’s upward path next? Considering most of the S-1 filings for the funds have not yet been approved, does this mean investors have more time to position themselves? What is the target price for Ethereum?
Answer 1: I believe the approval of the Ethereum ETF is just an extension of the tail end of the bull market. While the ETF launch will certainly bring new funds into Ethereum, I think the overall market is already quite high. Here are my key points:
a. Valuation: Bitcoin’s valuation has reached $1.3 trillion, and Ethereum’s valuation is at $456 billion, comparable to Tencent’s $458 billion. From a valuation perspective, the crypto market has reached historical highs.
b. ETF Scale: The asset management scale of Bitcoin ETFs is currently $54.3 billion, which I believe has reached its peak and is unlikely to grow further.
c. Interest Rates: The benefit from interest rate cuts is highly certain and has already been priced in.
d. Market Duration: This market run has lasted over 500 days. The previous longest bull run lasted over 600 days. This cycle has already been quite prolonged.
Therefore, I believe the cryptocurrency market will transition from bull to bear before September this year, opening the next opportunity for positioning. Ethereum will not be exempt from this trend.
Question 2: After the Ether ETF is listed, will there be a rotation effect, where funds might chase the Ether ETF in the short term, driving up Ethereum’s price? Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is relatively low. Is this a good trading opportunity? (In other words, will Ethereum have an independent bull run?)
Answer 2: Ethereum will likely perform stronger than Bitcoin in the short term before and after the Ether ETF launch, as the launch of Ether ETF that will attract new funds into Ethereum. Regardless, the inflow of funds will strengthen Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, but it does not guarantee an independent upward trend. It could mean that Ethereum falls less than Bitcoin or that its gains slightly exceed Bitcoin’s. If investors believe the crypto market will continue its trend, buying Ethereum may offer lower risk and higher returns compared to Bitcoin. However, I advise exiting within a month after the Ether ETF launch.
Question 3: This bull market has seen Ethereum’s gains suppressed, while Solana has surged significantly, leading to speculation that Solana might surpass Ethereum. After the Ether ETF approval, who will be the secondary leader of this bull market, Ethereum or Solana? Can Solana surpass Ethereum?
Answer 3: Solana’s current development strategy is correct, initially accumulating users through wealth effects, similar to Ethereum’s early ICO phase. However, its success against Ethereum depends on what Ethereumer it can incubate applications of real value.
Examining the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Solana and Ethereum, we see that Ethereum’s TVL mainly comes from staking projects like Lido, EigenLayer, and AAVE, which are less speculative and provide long-term, stable value — an ideal place for capital. In contrast, Solana’s TVL mainly comes from DEXs, focusing on trading and speculation. While wealth effects can attract users, Solana needs more projects that can continuously and stably create value and returns.
Currently, Solana lacks projects that can sustainably Solana market problems and create value. Ethereum’s ecosystem acts as a haven for capital, while Solana is more of a playground for retail investors. If Solana’s developers and operational teams can create applications that continuously meet Solana user needs, and generate stable returns, Solana has a chance to surpass Ethereum.
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